Where the Sharp Money Is Going in Week 11: Most Bettors Love Texas, the Big Money Likes Missouri

Seventy-one percent of the bets on Texas at Missouri are on the Longhorns. Seventy-four percent of the money is on Missouri, and the line has dropped from Texas -3.5 to -2.5, right off the key number of 3.

Here are the five games where the betting splits and the line moves tell the clearest story this week.

Texas at Missouri (Texas -2.5)

This is the cleanest signal on the board. The public is on one side, and the bigger bets and the line are on the other. Action Network’s count has Texas at 74% of bets too.

Alabama at LSU (LSU -5.5)

72% of the bets at DraftKings are on Alabama (84% in Action Network’s count). LSU has 44% of the money on just 28% of the bets, and the line has moved from LSU -4 to -5.5. That’s reverse line movement: the number moved against the side most people are betting.

Georgia at Ole Miss (Georgia -3.5)

65% of the bets and 67% of the money are on Georgia, and the line still fell from 5.5 to 3.5. The money split doesn’t show it, but the line is moving toward Ole Miss.

Florida State at Boston College (Florida State -6.5)

80% of the tickets are on Florida State. 95% of the money is on Boston College. That’s the biggest gap on the board, though the line hasn’t moved yet.

Kentucky at Tennessee (Tennessee -6.5)

81% of the bets are on Kentucky. Tennessee has 44% of the money on 19% of the bets, and the line went from 6 to 6.5. We’re with the money on this one: my pick is Tennessee -6.5.

How to read this

Bets % is the share of tickets. Money % (handle) is the share of dollars. When the money runs well ahead of the tickets, a smaller number of bigger bets is on that side. Reverse line movement is when the line moves against the side getting most of the bets. These numbers show where the bets and the money are. They aren’t inside information, and none of this is a pick.

Sources: DraftKings bets and handle splits via Cleatz, as of 11:10 a.m. Central, Wednesday, Nov. 4; Action Network bet percentages as of about 11:25 a.m. Central; opening and current lines from ESPN (DraftKings). Early-week samples are small and the numbers will move. We’ll check them again Thursday.

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Jeremy Durham is a sports columnist for TriStar Daily and the founder of Five and a Fade.

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