Five college games I like, one where the crowd is dead wrong, and a record you can hold me to. Last week went 3-3, but the Bama Hat Guarantee cashed. Utah won at Cincinnati 49-25, and the crimson hat stays in the closet.

This week I’m staying where the big games are, and I’m siding with the big money. Every pick here has to clear two tests. First, the bigger bets or the line move have to be on our side. Second, the computers have to agree. If the sharps and the models don’t line up, I don’t play it.

The five

1. The Kentucky Hat Guarantee: No. 16 Tennessee -6.5 vs. No. 8 Kentucky

You know this one. Eighty-three percent of the bets are on Kentucky. But Tennessee has 38 percent of the money on just 17 percent of the tickets, and the line went up from 6 to 6.5 anyway. That’s the books telling you who they respect. One model has the Vols winning by 11. If Tennessee doesn’t cover, my first video after the game is me in a Kentucky cap. I don’t own one, and I’d like to keep it that way. The full Vols column is here.

2. No. 11 Ohio State -7.5 vs. Oregon

Both teams are down their starting quarterbacks, and the public still can’t decide. The money can. Eighty-four percent of the dollars are on Ohio State, and the line has climbed from 6 to 7.5. Three of the four models I use have the Buckeyes covering, two of them by double digits. Lay it.

3. No. 3 Utah -5.5 vs. No. 7 BYU

Two Holy War teams with one loss between them, and Utah opened as just a 3-point favorite. It’s 5.5 now, and that move came from somewhere. Three models, three votes for Utah, and one has the Utes by 11. The public sees two great records and takes the points. I’m taking the team that’s 8-0 and 5-0 at home.

4. No. 1 Miami +7 at No. 4 Notre Dame

Seven is too many. All three models that ran this game have it closer than a touchdown. One has Notre Dame by less than 3. The smart money has pushed this number down at the sharper books, and you can still find 7 if you look. Undefeated is undefeated. Take the touchdown.

5. No. 12 Ole Miss +3.5 vs. No. 2 Georgia

Georgia has most of the bets and most of the money. And the line still dropped from 5.5 to 3.5. When a number moves against the side everybody’s on, somebody bigger is on the other side. One model has this a 1-point game. Georgia might win. I’m not sure Georgia wins by four in Oxford at night.

The Fade: Oklahoma +6.5 at No. 25 Florida

Seventy-five percent of the bets are on Florida, and the crowd has pushed this line from 4 to 6.5. But Oklahoma has 39 percent of the money on a quarter of the tickets. And both models that ran this game have the Sooners covering, one of them losing by just 3. The public has bought Florida two and a half extra points. Fade the crowd. Oklahoma +6.5.

The one I’m staying away from

No. 9 Alabama at No. 15 LSU. Eighty-four percent of the public is on Alabama, and the line moved toward LSU anyway. That’s sharp money on the Tigers. But every computer I trust has Alabama covering. When the sharps and the models are fighting, I keep my money in my pocket and my Bama hat in the closet. I’ll be watching, though. Every Vols fan in America will be.

The record

College: 12-10-1 on the season (including the Vols)
Bama Hat Guarantee: 1-0
Vols against the spread: 3-2

Tell me which one I’ve got wrong on X and Instagram at @fiveandafade, or on Facebook at Jeremy Durham. Follow for The Correct Top 10, Tuesday nights right after the CFP rankings.

Lines as of Wednesday, Nov. 4. For entertainment. Every pick and result lives on The Record.

Jeremy Durham is a sports columnist for TriStar Daily and the founder of Five and a Fade.