Five NFL games I like and one where the crowd is wrong. Every pick this week had to clear the computer models and the handicappers before it got anywhere near this column.
We always start with the Titans. This week, that means betting against them. I’m sorry. It’s not personal. It’s math.
The five
1. Bengals -10 vs. Titans
I took the Titans last week and I’ve taken them before. The models say not this week, and the handicappers I looked at are 2-0 on Cincinnati. The Bengals just put 35 on Baltimore. Grab -10 now, before it goes to 10.5.
2. Steelers -3.5 vs. Browns
This is the one game on the board where every model and every handicapper I checked agree. Pittsburgh is 3-0 against the spread at home. And the betting public? Six out of ten bets are on Cleveland. Everybody who knows something on one side, everybody else on the other. I know which side I want.
3. Chiefs -1.5 at Broncos
I rode Denver last week and it paid. But this line opened with the Broncos favored, and the market flipped it to Kansas City. The models and the handicappers went with it. One bad night in Seattle doesn’t make Patrick Mahomes a bad bet. Basically: pick the winner.
4. Jaguars -7.5 vs. Colts
Indianapolis has lost three straight. Jacksonville is 2-0 against the spread at home. The model has the Jaguars by eight, and the one handicapper I found on this game agrees. Most of the money is on the Colts anyway, which tells you how much people love a big underdog. Not me. Not this week. Lay it.
5. Vikings +3 at Lions
I told you Monday the Lions win the NFC North, and I still believe it. But this week every handicapper I found took Minnesota, and the line already dropped from 4.5 to 3. Detroit is 0-2-1 against the spread at home. The Lions can win the division and still not cover this Sunday. Take the unbeaten team getting a field goal.
The Fade: Raiders -1.5 at Jets
Seventy-one percent of the bets and 79 percent of the money are on Las Vegas. This line opened with the Jets favored. Now the Raiders are. And here’s the thing: both models I trust have the Jets winning, and this is the biggest model edge on the entire slate. The crowd moved this line, not the smart money. Fade the crowd. Jets +1.5.
I put my first video up on Instagram this week. Go watch it at @fiveandafade and tell me what you think.
Every pick is free. Get them by email: subscribe here.
Lines as of Tuesday, Oct. 27. For entertainment. Every pick and result lives on The Record.
Jeremy Durham is a sports columnist for TriStar Daily and the founder of Five and a Fade.
