Five college games I like, one where the crowd is dead wrong, and a record you can hold me to. Last week the record held me. 2-3-1, plus the Vols blew a lead in Columbia and took my +2.5 down with them. I’ve had better Saturdays.

So I did what any reasonable man does after a bad week: I went and got a second opinion. And a third. And a fourth. This week every pick has to clear the computers and the handicappers. If they don’t agree, I don’t bet it. No hunches, no helmet stickers, no “I just have a feeling about Cincinnati.”

Tennessee is off this week, which is the best news Vols fans have had since Oct. 17. Rest up. Kentucky comes to Neyland on Nov. 7, and I’ll have plenty to say about that one.

And starting this week, there’s something new. Every week, one of my five picks gets the Bama Hat Guarantee. It’s the pick I’m most sure of, the one where the numbers line up the strongest. If it doesn’t cover, I wear a Bama hat. On camera. You’ll find the video on Instagram and X at @fiveandafade, and I promise I’ll look as miserable as you’d expect. A Tennessee man in crimson. That’s the stakes. This week’s guarantee is pick No. 1.

The five

1. The Bama Hat Guarantee: Utah -6.5 at Cincinnati
Everybody loves a home dog. I love a home dog. But this one’s a trap. Every model I trust has the Utes covering, and two of them have Utah by double digits. I’m so sure about this one that if Utah doesn’t cover, I’ll wear a Bama hat. On camera. You have my word, and I don’t give it lightly. That hat is ugly.

2. Ohio State -7 at USC
Yes, the Buckeyes are starting a backup quarterback in the Coliseum. Yes, USC is 4-0 at home. And yes, the public is all over the Trojans because of it. Here’s what they’re missing: USC is 2-6 against the spread. All four models still have Ohio State covering, by almost three points on average. The Buckeyes’ backup has more talent around him than most starters in America. Lay it.

3. Duke -7.5 vs. Boston College
The least sexy game on the board and maybe the best number. Every model has Duke covering, the average is right around 10, and one has the Blue Devils by more than 12. If you can find -7 anywhere, grab it.

4. SMU -9.5 at Syracuse
Four models, four votes for SMU. Even the most conservative one has the Mustangs covering. Nobody’s talking about this game, which is exactly how I like it.

5. Texas Tech -4 vs. Arizona
All four models have Texas Tech covering, and one has the Red Raiders by more than a touchdown. Arizona has a little buzz this week, and that’s exactly why the number is only 4. At home, laying less than a touchdown, with every computer on our side? I’ll lay it.

The Fade: Minnesota +19.5 at Indiana

Eighty-eight percent of the bets are on Minnesota. Eighty-eight! The crowd sees 19.5 and thinks it’s free money. Three of the four models disagree, and so do I. When the whole country is on one side of a 19-point spread, the book isn’t sweating. I’m not either. Fade the crowd. Indiana -19.5.

The record

College: 9-7-1 on the season (including the Vols)
Vols against the spread: 3-2 (off this week)

I put my first video up on Instagram this week. Go give it a look at @fiveandafade and tell me how I did. Be nice. Or don’t, I’ve read the comments on my NFL picks.

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Lines as of Tuesday, Oct. 27. For entertainment. Every pick and result lives on The Record.

Jeremy Durham is a sports columnist for TriStar Daily and the founder of Five and a Fade.