The Dallas Cowboys beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-21 on Monday Night Football, and our Eagles +4.5 pick went down with Philly. Javonte Williams ran for 155 yards on 25 carries, and Dallas scored the last 18 points of the night.

How it was decided

The Eagles actually had this. Tanner McKee hit Makai Lemon for a 4-yard touchdown with 5:44 left in the third quarter, and Philadelphia led 21-20. We were covering and feeling great about it.

Then Dallas answered. Dak Prescott found CeeDee Lamb for a 16-yard touchdown with 1:30 left in the third, and Prescott ran in the two-point conversion himself to make it 28-21. Philadelphia never scored again. Brandon Aubrey added a 24-yard field goal with 9:10 to play, DeMarvion Overshown picked off McKee to kill the next Eagles drive, and Williams finished it with a 2-yard touchdown run with 2:21 left.

The numbers that matter

• Javonte Williams: 25 carries, 155 yards, 1 TD. Dallas ran for 204 yards as a team.
• Dak Prescott: 15 of 27, 212 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT.
• CeeDee Lamb: 5 catches, 74 yards, 2 TD.
• Turnovers: Dallas 0, Philadelphia 1.
• Records: Cowboys 3-4, Eagles 2-5.

How our pick did

• ❌ Eagles +4.5: lost by 17. Not close. Not even a little.

We faded a line that moved 7.5 points toward Dallas, and it turns out the people moving that line knew something. Lesson learned, maybe. Here’s the take we’ll stand on: Dallas found a run game, and a team that can run for 200 yards isn’t done at 3-4. Philadelphia at 2-5 is a whole different conversation.

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Jeremy Durham is a sports columnist for TriStar Daily and the founder of Five and a Fade.