Five NFL games I like, one where the crowd is wrong, and a running record so you can hold me to it. This week, the running record is the problem.
In college last week, I went 5-2 including the Vols and wouldn’t shut up about it. In the NFL, I went 2-4. I’d like to thank everyone who texted me about the NFL picks. Both of you.
The receipts
The Titans under 44. I said I wasn’t going to tell you to bet on this Titans team. Good thing, because Tennessee was a touchdown underdog and won outright. Up 23-20 with 43 seconds left, the total was sitting at 43. Then Joey Slye trotted out and hit a 44-yard field goal. The total was 44. The kick was 44. Did they need it? Not really. Would it have been awkward to have the ball and not kick it? Sure. Did it cost me? Absolutely.
The Jaguars. I wrote that Houston beating the Titans told you about as much as you’d guess. It told me Houston was about to beat me, too. Texans 34, Jaguars 31, on a 49-yard field goal at the gun. Two kickers, two losses. I’m starting to take this personally.
The Giants. “Getting points at home with the better team is a gift,” I wrote. It was. To New Orleans. Saints 34, Giants 27.
The Fade. I faded the Bears because Caleb Williams might not play. He played. He also completed his first 12 passes. Bears 31, Falcons 23.
My two wins: Denver beat Seattle 17-14, and Pittsburgh covered at Tampa Bay, in overtime, after trailing by 13 going into the fourth quarter. So my best pick of the week needed a comeback and an extra period. Ugly, but it counts.
That’s 2-4. Moving on. We always start with the Titans.
The five
1. Titans +1.5 vs. Browns
Last week I bet against the Titans, and they beat me twice in the same game. They won outright, then kicked the field goal that killed my under. I know when I’m beat. Cleveland is 4-2 and leads the AFC North, but its offensive line is banged up. The Titans just had six sacks at Indianapolis. At home, getting points, I’m finally on the right side of this team. Probably.
2. 49ers -3 at Falcons
I took Atlanta last week and lost. Now I’m on the other side. San Francisco is 6-0, the best record in football. Atlanta is 2-4, and its injury report reads like a roll call, especially on defense. The money is pouring in on the Falcons, and the line has dropped from 4.5 to 3. Thank you. I’ll take the unbeaten team at a field goal.
3. Chiefs +2.5 at Seahawks (Sunday night)
Kansas City is 5-0 and getting points. Seattle is 3-3 and just lost in Denver, which, for once, I called. Travis Kelce is banged up, but Patrick Mahomes is healthy. An unbeaten team with Mahomes getting points doesn’t happen often. I’ll take it.
4. Vikings -6.5 vs. Colts
Minnesota is 5-0. Indianapolis is 2-4 and just lost to the Titans, which I can now confirm is possible. The Colts’ injury report is long, starting in the secondary. Lay it.
5. Broncos -4.5 at Cardinals
Denver is the only team that paid me last week, so I’m going back to the well. The Broncos are 4-2. Arizona is 2-4, and eight Cardinals missed Wednesday’s practice. And they’re still rolling with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Lay it.
The Fade: Bengals -1.5 at Ravens
This line opened Baltimore -3. It’s now Cincinnati -1.5, a four-and-a-half-point swing, with 86 percent of the spread money at Hard Rock on the Bengals. The crowd is betting Lamar Jackson doesn’t play. Maybe he doesn’t. But he was back at practice Wednesday, limited. If Jackson plays, this line is wrong by a field goal. Fade the crowd. Ravens +1.5.
The record
Five and a Fade (NFL): 2-4 (see: Slye, Joey)
College: 7-3 on the season (including the Vols)
Vols against the spread: 3-1
Lines as of Wednesday, Oct. 21. For entertainment. This week’s college picks are at TriStar Daily, and every pick and result lives on The Record.
