First, I owned the Arkansas pick. I said Tennessee would win in Fayetteville for the first time since 2001, and it did. I said the Vols would cover 13.5, and they won by seven. That one got away because I got greedy. That left me 2-1 against the spread going into Bama week.

Alabama was limping in

The line opened at 6.5, got bet up to 8.5, then slid back to 7.5 once the injury news came out, and the total dropped five points. Alabama was missing its best receiver, and its starting center was doubtful, which meant a likely first career start at center in front of more than 100,000 people.

The Tennessee side

Xavier Gilliam had 10 tackles for loss through six games, more than any Vol at that point in a season in two decades but one. Tennessee had given up 20, 14 and 17 in its three big games. The worry was depth: when the starters rested at Arkansas, the younger guys didn’t hold up. And George MacIntyre had turned it over three times in Fayetteville. He couldn’t do that against Alabama.

The pick

I didn’t promise a Tennessee win. I said a team missing its top receiver and its center shouldn’t be laying more than a touchdown at Neyland. Tennessee +7.5, with a 24-21 Alabama prediction and cigars on me if the Vols won outright.

They won outright, 26-10. Cigars it is.

Pick: Tennessee +7.5 · Result: Tennessee 26, Alabama 10 (win) · Vols against the spread: 3-1

Read the full column at TriStar Daily: Bama Week, Part 2: Too Many Points at Neyland

For entertainment. Lines as of the day the column ran.