This was the first college edition of Five and a Fade, and I took the points almost everywhere. That wasn’t a theory. It’s just where the value was after a weekend that scrambled the Top 25.
The five
1. Mississippi State +10.5 at LSU. LSU had just lost to Kentucky and dropped 12 spots. State was 4-1 and ranked ahead of them. A reeling team laying double digits to a ranked one didn’t add up, even in Death Valley.
2. Kentucky +6.5 at Oklahoma. The Sooners were coming off the Red River win, the emotional peak of their year, and the letdown spot is the very next Saturday. Kentucky had its own statement win over LSU, and with a 42.5 total, a touchdown was plenty.
3. Indiana +3.5 vs. Ohio State. Twenty-two straight wins, 6-0, top five, at home and still getting points. At some point you stop asking whether Indiana is real.
4. BYU +12.5 vs. Notre Dame. Notre Dame probably wins. Two touchdowns on the road, at night in Provo, against an unbeaten team is a different question.
5. Arkansas +6.5 at Vanderbilt. I watched the Hogs take a second-half lead on Tennessee before the Vols won by seven. The 14-game SEC losing streak was real, but that team was better than its record, and Vandy hadn’t earned nearly a touchdown.
The fade: Auburn +18.5 vs. Georgia
Everybody was going to bet the new No. 1. Georgia had just beaten Alabama and drew a three-touchdown line in a rivalry game the very next week, against an Auburn team that lost by only 10 at Neyland. Georgia probably wins, I wrote. Covering 18.5 is another matter.
How it went
Better than probably: Auburn beat Georgia outright, BYU beat Notre Dame outright, Kentucky won at Oklahoma and Arkansas won in Nashville. Mississippi State got shut out at LSU without its starting quarterback, and Indiana lost 19-15. Debut week: 4-2.
Result: 4-2. BYU, Auburn, Kentucky and Arkansas all won outright. Vols against the spread: 2-1 coming in.
Read the full column at TriStar Daily: Five and a Fade, College Edition: Underdog Saturday
For entertainment. Lines as of the day the column ran.
