Full disclosure: I’m a Dodgers fan. I’m also on a heater. I took the Dodgers over Atlanta in exactly four games at +270, and it cashed.

Round two with Milwaukee

Baseball’s only two 100-win teams met in the NLCS for the second straight year. Last October the Dodgers swept the Brewers and outscored them 15-4. This Milwaukee team is better: 103-59, the best record in baseball, home field, an NL-best 832 runs and a +214 run differential. It also won the season series, including three of four at Dodger Stadium in August.

Where it turns

Game 1 was the headliner, Tarik Skubal against Jacob Misiorowski, who led the majors in ERA and strikeouts. The way to beat him is to foul pitches off, run up his count and get into the bullpen early. Game 2 worried me more: Blake Snell doesn’t go deep, which puts a heavy load on the Dodgers’ bullpen. That makes Game 3, Yoshinobu Yamamoto at home, the swing game.

The Dodgers’ edge is depth: no rotation left can match Skubal and Yamamoto, the lineup doesn’t need one guy to carry it, and when Shohei Ohtani gets hot he can end a series in one night.

The pick

Vegas had it Dodgers -160. Fair, but close isn’t the same as even. I took the Dodgers, went back to the well with Dodgers in six at +400, and picked a World Series three-peat.

Picks: Dodgers -160 to win the series, Dodgers in 6 (+400), Dodgers to win the World Series · Playoff record coming in: 1-0

Read the full column at TriStar Daily: Same Dodgers. Same Brewers. Same Ending.

For entertainment. Lines as of the day the column ran.