Every boxing fan knows the rule: you don’t take the belt on points. To beat the champ, you put him on the canvas. The Dodgers were the two-time defending champs, rested after 100 wins. Atlanta had to go three rounds with Philadelphia, then fly across the country.

Atlanta’s case

The Braves weren’t a pushover. They went 5-1 against the Dodgers in the regular season, won the NL East, and had a deep lineup and a strong bullpen. In a series of slugfests, they’d have a shot.

The lefty problem

It wasn’t going to be a slugfest. Atlanta’s OPS dropped from .730 against righties to .696 against lefties, and the Dodgers lined up two elite left-handers, Tarik Skubal and Blake Snell, for Games 1 and 2 before handing Game 3 to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Left, left, then the right hand you never saw coming. Meanwhile Atlanta’s rotation had been gutted by injuries and the Wild Card round.

Depth over stars

Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman were both cold, and it didn’t matter. The Dodgers went 18-7 in September because everybody else stepped up. You can’t pitch around one guy when there isn’t one guy.

The pick

Don’t lay -210 on the series, I said. Take the exact result: Dodgers in four. It cashed.

Pick: Dodgers in 4 (exact result, +260) · Result: Dodgers in 4 (win)

Read the full column at TriStar Daily: Braves-Dodgers NLDS Preview: To Beat the Champ, You Have to Knock Him Out

For entertainment. Lines as of the day the column ran.